In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47 percent year-on-year
Ar 14 Rhagfyr, dywedodd Chen Shihua, dirprwy ysgrifennydd cyffredinol Cymdeithas Gweithgynhyrchwyr Moduron fy ngwlad, yn Uwchgynhadledd Rhagolwg Datblygu'r Farchnad Moduron fy ngwlad yn 2022 y disgwylir y bydd gwerthiant ceir newydd yn fy ngwlad yn cyrraedd 27.5 miliwn yn 2022, cynnydd o 5.4 y cant o flwyddyn ar ôl blwyddyn . Bydd gwerthiant cerbydau ynni newydd yn cyrraedd 5 miliwn, i fyny 47 y cant flwyddyn ar{12}}flwyddyn. Bydd y broblem cyflenwad sglodion yn dal i fodoli y flwyddyn nesaf. Bydd cyflenwad sglodion yn cyrraedd cydbwysedd tynn erbyn diwedd y flwyddyn nesaf.
Bydd cyflenwad sglodion mewn cydbwysedd tynn y flwyddyn nesaf
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percent . Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percent ; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 percent ; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
Mae Cymdeithas Automobile Tsieina yn rhagweld y bydd tueddiad y farchnad ceir y flwyddyn nesaf i'r gwrthwyneb, gan ddangos nodweddion isel cyn ac uchel. Mae Chen Shihua o'r farn y bydd agor Gemau Olympaidd y Gaeaf yn hanner cyntaf y flwyddyn nesaf yn cael effaith benodol ar gynhyrchu cwmnïau sy'n gysylltiedig â cheir yng Ngogledd Tsieina, a bydd y broblem cyflenwad sglodion yn parhau tan y flwyddyn nesaf. Bydd cyflenwad sglodion yn cyrraedd cydbwysedd tynn erbyn diwedd y flwyddyn nesaf.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent . Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6 percent ; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47 percent .
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
Gall y farchnad cerbydau ynni newydd fynd i mewn i gyfnod ffrwydrol
Tynnodd Fu Bingfeng, is-lywydd gweithredol ac ysgrifennydd cyffredinol Cymdeithas Gweithgynhyrchwyr Automobile fy ngwlad, sylw y bydd galw defnyddwyr y farchnad yn parhau i ddangos tueddiad o wella ansawdd ac uwchraddio yn 2021, a bydd y cynhyrchiad a'r gwerthiant ceir cyffredinol yn dal i gynnal a chadw. cynnydd cyson, ac mae llawer o smotiau llachar. Roedd allbwn cronnol cerbydau ynni newydd yn yr 11 mis cyntaf yn fwy na 3 miliwn, ac roedd y gyfrol gwerthiant yn agos at 3 miliwn. Disgwylir y bydd y cyfaint gwerthiant blynyddol yn cyrraedd 3.4 miliwn, sef cynnydd o 1.6 gwaith o flwyddyn i flwyddyn. Mae marchnata cerbydau ynni newydd wedi cychwyn ar gyfnod newydd o dwf ffrwydrol, sydd wedi symud o bolisi a yrrwyd gan y farchnad yn y gorffennol.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Mae Wang Qing, dirprwy gyfarwyddwr Sefydliad Ymchwil Economaidd y Farchnad Canolfan Ymchwil Datblygu'r Cyngor Gwladol, yn rhagweld y disgwylir i'r galw am automobiles barhau i adlamu ychydig yn 2022. Mae cyfaint gwerthiant automobiles tua 27 miliwn o unedau, cynnydd o 3 y cant -5 y cant flwyddyn-o flwyddyn i flwyddyn, a bydd y patrwm o isel cyn ac uchel drwy gydol y flwyddyn yn parhau .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17 percent -18 percent in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16 percent . After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
Yn hyn o beth, mae Bai Ling, arbenigwr ymchwil diwydiant o Adran Cynllunio Cynnyrch Chongqing Changan, hefyd yn credu, yn 2022, y bydd y farchnad cerbydau ynni newydd yn trawsnewid yn raddol o siâp barbell i siâp gwerthyd. Bydd y gyfran yn cynyddu'n raddol.
