A fydd pris cerbydau ynni newydd yn cynyddu yn 2022?
Mae'r ystadegau diweddaraf gan Gymdeithas Automobile Tsieina yn dangos bod cynhyrchu a gwerthu cerbydau ynni newydd ym mis Tachwedd eleni wedi cyrraedd 457,000 a 450,000 yn y drefn honno, gyda chyfradd treiddiad y farchnad o 17.8 y cant, o'r rhain cyrhaeddodd cyfradd treiddiad y farchnad cerbydau teithwyr ynni newydd 19.5 y cant. Rhwng Ionawr a Thachwedd, roedd cynhyrchu a gwerthu cerbydau ynni newydd yn 3.023 miliwn a 2.99 miliwn, i fyny 1.7 gwaith y flwyddyn-ar-flwyddyn. Mae Ouyang Minggao, academydd o Academi Gwyddorau Tsieineaidd, yn rhagweld y bydd gwerthiant domestig cerbydau ynni newydd yn cyrraedd tua 3.3 miliwn eleni a 5 miliwn y flwyddyn nesaf.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly, subsidies have also accelerated. According to the "Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" jointly announced by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries in April 2020, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10 percent and 20 percent respectively on the basis of the previous year. percent , 30 percent . Although the detailed rules for the subsidy decline in 2022 have not yet been issued, more and more car companies are preparing for the further decline of the subsidy.
Mae rhai modelau-gwerthu poeth wedi dechrau codi prisiau
Ar 24 Tachwedd, cynyddwyd pris y fersiwn gyriant olwyn gefn o Model 3 Tesla domestig a Model Y gan 4,752 yuan, o 250,900 yuan a 276,000 yuan i 255,652 yuan a 280,752 yuan, yn y drefn honno. Yn wahanol i gynnydd mewn prisiau blaenorol a achosir gan gostau deunydd crai cynyddol, rheswm pwysig dros y cynnydd hwn mewn prisiau yw'r gostyngiad mewn cymorthdaliadau. Deellir bod yr amser dosbarthu presennol ar gyfer Model 3 a Model Y yn chwarter cyntaf 2022.
Yn gyd-ddigwyddiadol, ers Rhagfyr 13, mae hawliau prynu ceir tri model o Xiaopeng Motors wedi'u lleihau i raddau amrywiol. Yn eu plith, mae pecyn hawliau prynu car P7 wedi'i leihau 5,000-10,000 yuan, mae'r P5 wedi'i leihau 4,000 yuan, ac y mae y G3i wedi ei ostwng o 5,000 yuan. Yna mwynhewch y dull 0 llog neu log isel. Mae mewnwyr diwydiant yn credu, yn ogystal â chyfyngiadau'r gadwyn gyflenwi, bod y gostyngiad mewn cymorthdaliadau yn rheswm pwysig i Xiaopeng grebachu ei hawliau prynu ceir.
Ar yr un pryd, mae dirywiad cymorthdaliadau wedi dod yn gimig i gwmnïau ceir ysgogi defnydd. Ar 7 Rhagfyr, ysgrifennodd poster propaganda ID.4CROZZ ac ID.6CROZZ a ryddhawyd yn swyddogol gan FAW-Volkswagen: Y cyfrif i lawr i'r gostyngiad cymhorthdal cenedlaethol, gan ddechrau o Ionawr 1, 2022, bydd y cymhorthdal cyflwr ynni newydd yn cael ei leihau gan 5,400 yuan!
It is worth noting that in the face of the delay in order delivery and the further decline of subsidies due to the upgrade of the production line, NIO adopted the strategy of "paying for itself". Weilai said that users who paid a deposit to buy ES8, ES6, and EC6 before December 31 this year and purchased the car on March 31, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the national subsidy standard in 2021, that is, the vehicle standard. Models with battery packs (75kWh) and long-life battery packs (100kWh) can still enjoy subsidies of 16,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively. At present, the delivery cycle of NIO is about 2 months, that is, for users who book cars before the end of the year, the delivery time of new cars is all in 2022. That is to say, the price difference arising from the subsidy decline in 2022 will be borne by NIO.
In addition, Nezha car sales staff also said that as long as the vehicle is ordered this year, even if the pick-up time is next year, you can still enjoy this year's subsidy policy.
"There is a high probability that there will be no significant increase"
Mae gan wahanol gwmnïau ceir bŵer bargeinio marchnad gwahanol. Ar gyfer cwmnïau ceir blaenllaw, nid yw cynnydd bach mewn prisiau yn cael fawr o effaith ar werthiannau disgwyliedig; ar gyfer cwmnïau ceir yn y cam dringo, byddai'n well ganddynt ysgwyddo'r golled na risg gostyngiad mewn gwerthiant. . Mae'r polisi yn nodi y bydd safon y cymhorthdal ar gyfer cerbydau ynni newydd yn 2022 yn cael ei ostwng 30 y cant ar sail 2021, a dyma'r flwyddyn olaf o gymorthdaliadau ar gyfer cerbydau ynni newydd. Felly, a fydd y gostyngiad o 30 y cant mewn cryfder yn achosi cynnydd yn y pris i nifer fawr o gerbydau ynni newydd?
"At present (new energy vehicle) sales have basically entered the market-oriented track, and subsidies have little impact. Although there are no subsidies, non-subsidy policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still be used. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, fuel Compared with electric vehicles, the cost of using a car increases. Therefore, the impact of the subsidy decline will not be too great." Ouyang Minggao believes.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that whether new energy vehicles will usher in a price hike in 2022 depends on the game of various factors. "The negatives include tight battery supply, no more mature new battery routes to replace, difficulty in large-scale recycling and utilization of existing lithium-ion battery raw materials, and declining subsidies. The increase in the price of points, the reduction of the cost of other parts by car companies, and the disguised increase of profits by car companies in after-sales or OTA (over-the-air download) upgrades can also absorb some of the price increase factors."
In addition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, also made it clear that in 2022, the price of new energy vehicles "is unlikely to increase significantly."
Bydd cwmnïau ceir yn tywys rownd newydd o brofion
It is understood that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented since 2009, and it has been 12 years. In 2019, subsidies fell sharply, which led to the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, the reshaping of the pattern, the sharp drop in sales, and the elimination of some car companies that depended on subsidies to survive. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have made great strides from policy-driven to market-driven, and the market penetration rate has been increasing. With the substantial increase in the cruising range of power lithium-ion batteries, the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure, and the support of various local preferential policies, consumers have The acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. Under this development trend, the decline or cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inevitable.
In fact, even if the price of vehicles does not increase, the pressure on car companies is increasing. Problems such as chip shortages and skyrocketing battery raw material prices have plagued car companies. The superimposed subsidy decline may further compress the profit margins of car companies, and car companies with low sales will fall into a more difficult situation. Chen Qingtai, chairman of my country's Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that although non-subsidy support is still available, for the market, next year will be a "hurdle", and car companies will usher in a new round of tests.
"After the subsidy is withdrawn, the relevant technical rules such as battery energy density, power consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. are no longer required, and even if the battery replacement subsidy is canceled, the cost-effective models that meet the needs of users will develop better, and the head aggregation situation will also improve. It is easier to form." Cao Guangping said.
